Urbanization, bioenergy use, weather patterns, land ownership changes and invasive species will all impact and alter the South’s forests between 2010 and 2060, according to the Southern Forest Futures Project Report. During that period, the United States Forest Service (USFS) and the Southern Group of State Foresters (SGSF), southern forests could decrease by as many as 23 million acres.
“The Southern Forest Futures Project: Summary Report,” developed by David N. Wear and John G. Greis, identifies key areas forest managers will focus on to maintain southern forests for the 50 years.
The release of the full draft report begins a 60-day public comment period. Those interested view the complete report at the Futures Project website and submit comments by following the Public Input link on the left side of the screen.
We have summarized the 10 key findings from the report below to help industry participants identify whether they will need to read the full report and submit comments.
- The interaction of four primary factors will define the South’s future forests:
- Population growth--By 2060 the South’s human population is forecasted to increase by 40 to 60 percent.
- Climate change--Forecasts from a variety of models consistently indicate a warmer future, with average annual temperatures increasing 2.5 to 3.5 °C by 2060.
- Timber markets--The South contains the most intensively managed forests in the United States. Over the last 50 years timber production more than doubled and the area of planted pine grew from virtually nonexistent to 39 million acres, or about 19 percent of forests.
- Invasive species--New nonnative insects, diseases, and pest complexes are emerging across the South with significant implications expected for several tree species.
- Urbanization is predicted to accelerate forest losses, increased carbon emissions, and stress to other forest resources.
Between 30 and 43 million acres of land in the South are forecasted to be developed into urban uses by 2060, from a base of 30 million acres in 1997. The South is forecasted to lose between 11 and 23 million acres (7 and 13 percent respectively) of forests from 1997 to 2060. All sub regions are expected to lose at least some acreage; nearly all of this area would be converted to urban uses. The report did recognize, however, that strong timber markets can ameliorate forest losses somewhat, by shifting urbanization to agricultural lands.
- Southern forests could sustain higher timber production levels, but demand is the limiting factor and demand growth is uncertain.
Although timber production in the South more than doubled from the 1960s to the late 1990s, output levels have declined over the last 10 years, signaling structural changes in timber markets.
As demand receded during this period, investment in softwood production continued to expand, leading to increased supply for softwoods, especially softwood pulpwood. The net result was a substantial reduction in softwood pulpwood prices. Without an expansion in timber demand, private forest landowners may eventually shift away from forest management, since investment returns could diminish to the point where these investments cannot be justified.
- Bioenergy could trigger changes in forest conditions, management, and markets.
Harvesting woody biomass for use as bioenergy is forecasted to range from 170 to 336 million green tons by 2050, an increase of 54-113 percent over current levels.
Consumption forecasts for forest biomass-based energy, which are based on Energy Information Administration projections, have a high level of uncertainty given the interplay between public policies and the supply and investment decisions of forest landowners.
The emergence of a new woody biomass-based energy market would potentially lead to price increases for merchantable timber, resulting in increased returns for forest landowners.
In the absence of government support, research, pilot projects, and incentives for production and commercialization of woody bioenergy markets are unlikely to develop.
- A combination of factors has the potential to decrease water availability and degrade quality; forest conservation and management can help to mitigate these effects.
Forest conversion to agriculture or urban use consistently increases discharge, peak flow, and velocity of streams. Sub regional differences in hydrologic responses to urbanization are substantial. Sediment, harmful chemicals, pathogens, and other substances often become more concentrated after forest conversion. If the conversion is to an urban use, the resulting additional increases in discharge and concentrations will produce even higher loads.
On average, water-supply model projections for the South indicate that by 2050 the combination of population growth and land-use change will increase water stress by 10 percent.
- Invasive species create a great but uncertain potential for ecological changes and economic losses.
New nonnative invasive insects and diseases will have serious impacts on southern forests over the next 50 years.
Given the trend in introductions of nonnative insects and plant pathogens over the last 100 years, additional introductions of previously undocumented pests are likely to have serious consequences for some native forest plant species. Public awareness campaigns, cooperative spread abatement networks, collaborative programs of detection and eradication, dedicated research and extension programs, and employment of new land restoration options have been found to slow the spread of nonnative plants and prevent them from destroying critical habitats.
- An extended fire season combined with obstacles to prescribed burning would increase wild land fire-related hazards.
Climate forecasts indicate that the South's spring and fall wildfire seasons will be extended.
Major wildfire events, such as the 2007 Okefenokee wildfires, 2008 Evans Road Fire in eastern North Carolina, and recent west Texas fire seasons, are also likely to occur more often. Such events currently occur once every 50 years; however, they could be more frequent in the warmer/drier climates predominant in the South.
Land use change will have the most immediate effects on fuels and wild land fire management by constraining prescribed burning and increasing suppression complexity and cost.
- Private owners continue to control forest futures, but ownership patterns are becoming less stable.
Private landowners hold 86 percent of the forest area in the South; two-thirds of private forest land is held by families or individuals.
Fifty-nine percent of private owners hold fewer than 9 acres of forest land, but 60 percent of privately owned forests are in holdings of 100 acres or more.
Two-thirds of family forest land is owned by people who have harvested and sold trees from their land. Assuming that commercial owners have harvested timber, approximately 8 of every 10 acres of private forest land in the South is owned by individuals or organizations that have commercially harvested their timber.
The average size of family forest holdings is 29 acres. Ongoing parcelization and fragmentation through estate disposal and urbanization will likely continue to alter forest management in the South.
- Threats to species of conservation concern are widespread but are especially concentrated in the Coastal Plain and the Appalachian-Cumberland sub regions.
Species of conservation concern are imperiled by habitat alteration, isolation, invasive species infestations, environmental pollutants, commercial development, and human disturbance and exploitation.
Conditions predicted by the forecasts would magnify these stressors. Each species varies in its vulnerability to forecasted threats, and these threats vary by sub region. Key areas of concern arise where hotspots of vulnerable species coincide with forecasted stressors.
An understanding of the relationship between the forecasts and the geographic pattern of species occurrence would improve planning efforts.
The implications for the conservation of southern species are significant: biological diversity will become a critical conservation issue.
- Increasing population may increase demand for forest-based recreation while the availability of land to meet these needs is forecasted to decline.
Federal acreage changes very little over time, but population changes greatly. The South grew considerably faster (32.5 percent) in total population in the 18 years from 1990 to 2008 than the Nation as a whole (22.2 percent). Less than 5 percent of Federal land, about 30.5 million acres, is in the South, 44 percent of which is managed by the U.S. Forest Service.
By 2060, non-Federal forest is predicted to decline to 0.95 acres per person, or 57 percent of the 2010 level. The projected decline is greater for the South than the Nation because of population growth and increased development.
This summary report illuminates the type of issues that landowners and foresters, as well as the industries that rely on forest resources, should be aware of as they make plans going forward. After the 60-day comment period, which ends July 17, a final report will be issued by the Southern Research Station of the USFS no later than September 2011. More focused, subregional reports will be issued by the end of the year.
Suz-Anne Kinney
Forest2Market: July 14, 2023
