The following post is based on an unscientific, non-statistically valid sample of my personal observations of a sub-segment of the US economy: leisure travel. More specifically, my observations are of a sub-segment of the leisure travel economic sector that even our President used during the last election cycle – Recreational Vehicles (RVs).
I have been in a remote part of Southwestern Colorado for the last week and a half with little or no access to news media – isolation is tough to come by these days, but it can be found it with a little effort. With all the rigmarole in Washington about debt ceilings and balanced budgets, I picked an interesting time to be out of touch. But this does not mean that I was isolated from economic conditions. Indeed, I decided to observe what I saw around me from an economic point of view … and to decide if what I saw conforms to the economic reports we all see.
I traveled from Charlotte, NC to the San Juan Mountains in an RV and stayed in a popular government-run campground. I make a similar trip each year, so I have a basis of comparison, 2011 to 2009 and 2010.
On the Road
In 2009 and 2010, I was in good company on my cross country RV travels. I saw plenty of like-minded travelers on the road with a balanced mix of RVs from inexpensive (relative term) travel trailers to $1 million plus luxury RVs. As I traveled through the states between North Carolina and Colorado, I saw a diverse geographic spread of license plates. I made these observations in every state I visited.
Contrast this with what I observed in July of 2011. On this trip, there seemed to be plenty of RV traffic in the states I traveled through East of the Mississippi River and in the Rockies, but in between there was little. However, overall RV traffic appeared to be significantly below what I observed in prior years. What was more telling was the mix of traffic, both based upon apparent economic position and geographic dispersion. From an economic perspective, I observed approximately the same level of traffic in the $1 million plus motor homes (search Prevost or Newell Coach), a slight decline in the pop-up and travel trailer categories, and a significant reduction in moderate cost (again a relative term) fifth wheel campers and motorhomes. Additionally, the geographic dispersion (with the possible exception of the luxury RVs) was simply not there. Most of the RVs I saw in any given state were registered in the same state or in adjacent states. The broad range of states of the last two years was not evident.
In the Mountains
Once I got to my destination, the trend in the observations continued. In the past, the campground was booked full six to nine months in advance and at least 50 percent of the RVs/campers carried out-of-state plates. This year, there were plenty of spots open and available for walk up registration and most (better than 75%) of the RVs were from Colorado. The types of RVs matched what I observed while traveling as well … more lower cost RVs and fewer medium cost RVs.
As I drove into the mountains from the campground, I drove through towns that depend upon tourism for a large part of their economy. These towns were empty. One town I traveled through almost every day was noticeably empty (from a tourist perspective). Where parking had been difficult to come by in the past, I had my choice of places this year.
Do These Observations Match the Economic Reports?
The economic news of late has been bleak. In fact, based on our Economic Outlook, Forest2Market is forecasting a double-dip later this year, with what recovery we have seen stalling out. From my observations over the last few weeks, I can infer that consumers are cutting back their spending, at least as it relates to leisure travel. The middle class seems to have been particularly hard hit by the recession and the post-recession economic malaise.
- All economic classes have reduced their leisure travel and associated spending.
- The top tier economic classes are still spending (and traveling). To what extent their spending pattern has changed is difficult to discern.
- The middle to upper middle tier economic classes (represented by the moderate cost fifth wheel campers and motorhomes) have significantly cut back on travel and spending, at least with respect to long distance travel.
- The lower to lower middle tier economic classes have reduced travel and spending.
An Invitation
If, like me, you’ve been lucky enough to travel this summer, I’d be interested in hearing your observations and conclusions about the economy. Share your stories by commenting here.
Comments
Tom Kimmerer
08-02-2011
I don’t pay a lot of attention to RVs, as my family is more the tent-camping sort. However, having been to Cumberland Gap National Historical Parks at least 3 times a year for the last few years, I do know that the RV sections of the campground fill up every summer weekend and that has not changed much. (The tent sites never fill, which is nice. We went on July 4 weekend and had our pick of sites).
I pay attention, for professional reasons, to freight rail activity, and I do know that freight shipments have been steadily increasing in all sectors (commodity, intermodal, auto) steadily since the bottom of the recession. Railroads are hiring, and there is a backlog in construction of new freight cars. This doesn’t seem consistent with a slowing economy, and maybe it bodes well for the near future, despite softness in manufacturing. I am a forest scientist, not an economist, but I can’t help but think that a steady increases in the health of freight rail is a good sign.
Comments
Sam Houston
08-02-2011
Tom, thanks for sharing your observations! I would agree that the steady increase in rail freight utilization is a positive signal. Your camping observations bring up a couple of items to ponder.
The first point is that there are any number of economic measures or indicators that we can review. Almost always, these indicators have some inconsistency, so deciding the weights to apply to each is a challenging task that results in almost every economist and casual observer having a different outlook for the economy.
The second point is that the recovery appears to be regional and our observations may lend some credit to that notion. You are continuing to see high visitor counts in your region. One of the local places I enjoy visiting appears to be reatining their historical visitor counts. The park I stayed in in Colorado, was one of the places that appears to be seeing a decline in visits. What was missing in the park I resided in for a week was the out of state visitors (the in-state visitor count appeared to be about the same as in the past).
Our sample now has two observations ... only a few hundred more before we approach statistical significance!
Forest2Market: July 14, 2023
